Comin' straight outta... Hypeton. AFL Fantasy coaches are a funny breed, especially the ones as tragic as us, who have been preparing our squads and watch lists since August 28. We come up with these 'hype' players who we think are the next big thing to breakout or are a must have. Because we are constantly listening, watching, lurking around for so long before the season starts, we begin to manifest these hyped players into genuine options, when perhaps they really shouldn't see the light of day in our teams. Given, some of these hype players have a tendency to slip through and produce the goods, take for example Lachie Hunter or Seb Ross from 2016 who were both much hyped and delivered breakout seasons. 'Don't Believe The Hype' is all about picking out the most talked about and hyped players this pre season and putting some doubt, or as I like to call it, common sense, back into the minds of the tragic fantasy coaches out there. Enjoy!
Today we take a good look at Josh Caddy of the Richmond Tigers as our first hype player of the pre season. He currently has an ownership of 22.4% in the dtlive.com.au Drawing Board as this article is written, which just as an example, is 21.9% more owners than what Tom T Lynch has currently. Given Tommy is also 30k more expensive, though is a proven forward scorer with a 91 average in 2016, you wonder why fantasy coaches are putting so much faith in the new Tiger.
Is it because he has been touted as spending more time in the midfield? Well, yes this is true, coach Damien Hardwick has mentioned that the ex Cat is destined for more time in the guts and that's why he made the decision to move to Punt Road in the first place. But does a midfield move mean a 95+ average? Which is what you would want out of him with that price tag and starting as either your F 2 or 3, I mean, those 22.4% of coaches surely aren't picking him up as a cash cow now are they. So let's have a look at Josh Caddy the forward before we check out Caddy the midfielder...
Above is Caddy's 2016 season heat map showing where he ran around the paddock the most and picked up his possessions. That big red patch looks as though it's fairly well smack bang in the middle of the ground to my eyes - though the excuse for Caddy's drop off in fantasy point scoring last season was apparently because he spent more time as a forward. I can understand his injury interruptions as a plausible excuse (which i'll touch on later), but the more time as a forward excuse is debunked. Now, let's have a look at Caddy's 2015 season where he had his highest fantasy scoring season average of his career when he managed 89 points per game...
Look similar? Well, very close. Caddy's 2015 heat map is slightly more centralized than in 2016 - though not to the extent you would call him more of a forward than a mid. He played the majority of the 2015 season as an in and under type midfielder in a team that won 11 games for the year, which is well down on how the Cat's have generally traveled for the past decade. An 89 season average as a forward is nothing to scoff about, though even with the exodus of forward options this year, an 89 average is still going to struggle to crack the top 10 forward options in my opinion.
The question here is, can Caddy top a 95+ average at a new club under a possible new role with new team mates? There are a heap of question marks over his ability to do so and selection, with his price tag in mind, comes at a substantial risk still.
Let's now have a look over his durability. You have to go back to 2012 when Caddy had a full season of 22 games, since then he has had seasons of 18, 16, 19 and 18 most recently in 2016. He loves to find ways of getting injured and is king of general soreness issues. 24 games missed over the past 4 seasons, that's an entire season in itself missed through injuries! I think i've said enough here.
Lastly, Caddy's ability to find the ball as a midfielder is questionable. He doesn't fill stat sheets like true midfielders do. Given, he has played negating roles as a midifelder in the past, but then again so has Scott Selwood at West Coast and Kane Cornes back in the day...and they went alright in my opinion. Caddy has naver averaged more than 20.4 disposals per game over an entire season, that includes his best season back in 2015. Usually players with disposal averages like this, playing as a midfielder, have elite tackling averages - not Josh. His best tackle average over the past four years is 5.6, not bad, as anything over 5 is considered excellent, though his other three seasons read averages of 4, 2.9 and 3.9. Jack Redden when at Brisbane was never a high disposal midfielder, though he made up for it in tackles a plenty. For someone considered an 'inside midfielder', he doesn't do enough in this category and therefore his fantasy average suffers as a result.
So do you follow the crowd and believe the Caddy hype in 2017? Leave a comment below.